Comparative Market Analysis
Bee Creek Estates | Spicewood, Texas 78669 | Lake Travis ISD
Prepared by Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group |
eXp Realty Luxury | August 20, 2026
The Position
Bee Creek Estates is a gated enclave of thirty-eight acreage homesites immediately outside Rough Hollow. Thirty-eight doors. That is the entire supply, and it does not expand.
In June, 19409 Sean Avery Path closed at $3,610,000 — full price, fourteen days on market, multiple offers. It is the highest per-square-foot closing in this analysis by a wide margin, and it happened on this street.
Your home has never been offered for sale. Built in 2018 and held by the original owners, it enters the market as a first-generation single-story on 1.629 level, usable acres — the scarcest configuration in the Lake Travis corridor.
This analysis draws on thirty-seven listings across the Lake Travis and West Austin acreage market. It concludes with three pricing scenarios and a recommendation.
Property Snapshot
- Address: 19101 Sean Avery Path, Spicewood, TX 78669
- Community: Bee Creek Estates — gated, 38 acreage homesites
- Living area: 5,668 square feet, single story
- Homesite: 1.629 acres, level and usable
- Year built: 2018 — first time on market
- Configuration: 3 bedrooms in the main house plus detached casita with full bath, kitchenette, and private patio
- Baths: 4 full
- Garage: 3-car attached, 1,062 sq ft, long winding drive approach
- Systems: Private well and septic
- Fireplaces: 3 | Roof: Metal, gable
- 2026 preliminary assessed value: $1,674,567
- Estimated 2026 tax: $22,318 at a 1.6266% combined rate
What Sets This Home Apart
Single-Story on Level Acreage
Across the comparison set, single-story homes closed at a $539 per-foot median against $522 for two-story product — and among 2018-and-newer construction the single-story median rises to $598. For the buyer at this price point, one level is not a preference. It is a filter.
Siting
No direct neighbor to the left. The property backs to the new Bee Creek sports fields, which are not visible from the home or the outdoor living areas. Buffered privacy without the maintenance obligation of additional acreage.
Interior
Light oak wide-plank floors, cathedral ceilings, Continental disappearing doors, modern lighting throughout. Bar area with wine refrigerator, built-in espresso, double-drawer refrigeration, and generous bar counter space.
Outdoor Living
Massive covered living area with retractable power screens. Oversized pool. Sport court with basketball goal — convertible to pickleball, the highest-demand amenity request in Lake Travis today.
The Casita
Detached, with full bath, kitchenette, and its own patio with fireplace and television. Multigenerational and long-stay guest capability that almost no competing listing offers.
Micro-Market Context
Bee Creek Estates sits directly outside Rough Hollow with none of the density. The comparison set a buyer actually shops spans Bee Creek Estates, Belvedere, Reserve at Lake Travis, Signal Hill, Windy Walk Estates, Travis Settlement, Tiburon Hills, Madrone Ranch, and Lakeway Highlands.
Two structural notes govern the analysis:
- Story count splits the market. Blending single-story and two-story product produces a misleading per-foot figure. This analysis segments them.
- Well and septic is the norm here, not a discount. Six of the closed comparables are on well water, including the $3,610,000 sale on this street.
Closed Comparable Sales — Single Story
Single-story median: $539/SF. Built 2018 or newer: median $598/SF, mean $613/SF.
Closed Comparable Sales — Two Story
Two-story median: $522/SF — below comparable single-story product, and the gap widens once age is held constant.
Active and Pending Competition
Value Analysis
The most relevant sale in the market is 19409 Sean Avery Path. It is also a superior property in several respects, and the adjustment has to reflect that honestly.
19409 was the personal residence of Dash Custom Homes — built for the builder himself, with the finish and upgrade package that implies — on 4.27 acres with canyon and hill country views.
Bracketing the two soft inputs — the lot differential and the builder finish premium — produces a defensible range of $3,035,000 to $3,285,000.
On the multiple offers at 19409: competition was real, but the winning bid cleared list by $10,001 on a $3,599,999 asking price. A bidding war produces two to five points of escalation. A $10,001 overbid is a tiebreaker. It tells us $3.6M was at fair value for that home — not beneath it. What it also tells us is that buyers wanted into this gate in June and one of them won. The others are still looking.
The Single Most Important Pattern in the Data
Across nineteen closed sales, sort by one variable: did the home launch at a price the market accepted, or did it require a reduction?
8.3 Points
The penalty in close price for launching too high — not recovered by a reduction
87 Extra Days
Additional time on market for homes that required a price reduction
What Happened to Every Home That Launched at $3.4M or Above
Fourteen listings launched at $3,390,000 or higher. Seven have closed. Excluding 19409, the other six closed at a median 86.7% of their launch price after a median 140 days. Five of the fourteen remain unsold.
One home out of fourteen held its launch price. It was the builder's personal residence, on 4.27 acres, with canyon views.
Three Pricing Scenarios
Read the modeled-close row before the list-price row. Tier 1 asks $300,000 more than Tier 3 and models to a lower net outcome, because $3,400,000 places the home in the cohort that reduces.
That is not an argument that $3.4M is unreachable — 16114 Cool Breeze launched at $3,499,000 and closed at 94.7%. It is an argument that reaching it requires this home to outperform its cohort, while the adjustment grid indicates a value of $3,160,000.
Carrying cost of the longer path. Taxes, insurance, utilities, pool service, and staging rental run roughly $5,500 to $7,500 per month on a vacant listed home. The eighty additional days Tier 1 implies over Tier 2 cost $15,000 to $20,000 before any price difference is counted.
Recommendation
$3,250,000
$573 per square foot
It sits above the adjustment grid's $3,160,000 indication, leaving genuine negotiating room. It falls inside the cohort that historically holds its launch price. It clears 4300 Derrick by $55,000 while offering the superior product — single-story, three years newer, level acreage, true casita — which is exactly the comparison a buyer inside the gate will run. And it prices to a close between $3,075,000 and $3,250,000 in roughly sixty days.
If you want to reach for $3,400,000, there is a disciplined way to do it: launch at $3,400,000 with a written, pre-committed reduction to $3,250,000 on day 21 if the home has not drawn a contract. That captures the underbidder pool from 19409 while the listing is still new, and it converts the reduction from a concession into a plan. It works only if the date is honored.
What we would not recommend is launching at $3,400,000 without that commitment. The evidence on that path is consistent: roughly 140 days and a close near $2,950,000.
Pre-List Make-Ready
From our walk-through on August 19, 2026. None of this is structural. All of it is visible to a buyer in the first ninety seconds — and every scenario above assumes it is complete before photography.
Clear and Clean
- Remove all remaining personal items and stored contents from the home
- Full make-ready clean of the home and garage
- Windows cleaned inside and out
- Screens cleaned, removed, and stored in the garage — screenless glass photographs dramatically better and reads as a larger opening
Lighting
- Convert all can lighting to LED 3000K retrofit trim
- Replace all remaining bulbs to match at 3000K
- Consistent, warm color temperature is the single highest-return cosmetic item in a luxury listing. Mixed temperatures read as deferred maintenance even when nothing is wrong.
Exterior Stone and Hardscape
- Remove organic growth from exterior stone pavers and stone decking, or engage MD Concrete Creations to remediate with stain
- Power-wash all flatwork
- This is the pull-up impression and the pool-deck photograph. Both are decisive.
Exterior Detail
- Paint fascia where needed
- Reattach loose soffit boards
Outdoor Systems
- Replace or remove the perimeter pool speakers — non-functioning built-in audio invites a credit request; clean removal does not
- Steam clean and service the RCS propane grill
Professional Staging
- Full staging of the main house and the detached casita following the clean-out
- Priority rooms: living, primary suite, dining, the bar area, and the covered outdoor living
- The casita staged as a defined guest suite so the buyer reads it as a fifth living space, not a bonus building
- 5,668 square feet of cathedral-ceiling volume cannot be sold empty. Vacant rooms at this price point read as smaller and unfinished, and give a buyer nothing to anchor a $3M number to.
Marketing and Concierge Plan
Positioning
The first offering of a 2018 single-story on level acreage inside a thirty-eight-home gated enclave. Scarcity is the headline, not square footage.
The 19409 Underbidder Pool Is the First Call
Multiple buyers competed for that home and one won. We will work the listing agent and the cooperating brokers directly to reach the buyers who did not, before the home reaches the open market.
Assets
Full architectural photography after make-ready and staging are complete. Twilight exterior and pool. Aerial capture establishing the level homesite, sport court, and the buffer to the left. Floor plan with the casita rendered as a distinct structure. Cinematic video emphasizing the disappearing doors and covered outdoor living.
Audience
Direct outreach to the Rough Hollow and Lake Travis agent community, where the single-story acreage buyer is already represented. Targeted placement to relocation and second-home audiences in Houston, Dallas, and California.
Concierge
Vendor coordination and oversight for every make-ready item above, managed by Foreman Property Group so you manage nothing.
First Thirty Days
A disciplined thirty-day runway from authorization to active listing — with every step sequenced to maximize the impact of launch day and protect the home's position in the market.
What a Sale Means for the Buyer's Numbers
Tax Reset at Sale
Worth anticipating, because it will surface in negotiation. The property is currently assessed at $1,674,567 with a homestead exemption, producing an estimated 2026 tax bill of $22,318. At a $3,250,000 sale the assessment resets, and a buyer should underwrite closer to $52,900 annually at the current 1.6266% combined rate.
This is normal for a first-generation custom home in Travis County, and it is better addressed proactively in the marketing materials than reactively in an inspection-period negotiation.
On Automated Valuations
Automated valuation models — including the CoreLogic estimate of $2,171,800 on this property — systematically undervalue custom acreage homes with detached casitas and amenity packages, because there is no algorithmic input for them. Expect a buyer's agent to raise it. The answer is the closing two doors down at $3,610,000.
Current Assessment
$1,674,567 with homestead exemption
Current Tax Bill
~$22,318 estimated 2026
Post-Sale Tax Estimate
~$52,900 annually at 1.6266% on $3,250,000
CoreLogic AVM
$2,171,800 — systematically undervalues this property type
Next Steps
Select a Scenario
Our recommendation is $3,250,000; $3,400,000 is workable only with a pre-committed day-21 reduction date.
Authorize Make-Ready and Staging Scope
FPG coordinates every vendor and the staging firm; a written scope and cost estimate follows within 48 hours.
Schedule Photography
For the week following staging installation.
Review the Seller Net Sheet
At the selected price — delivered separately.
Execute the Listing Agreement
Target launch inside seventeen days.
Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman
Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
Lakeway | Rough Hollow | Bee Cave | West Austin | Lake Travis
Comparable data sourced from ACTRIS/Unlock MLS, pulled August 20, 2026, comprising 37 listings. Tax and assessment data courtesy of Travis Central Appraisal District via CoreLogic. Values are opinions of market value and not appraisals.
19101 Sean Avery Path